A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator remarked. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the political, financial and societal reasons for any constitutional change in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of informed dialogue, noted McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both authors two pieces that strive for impartiality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and social figures, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover national emblems, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an recognition of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they prefer unification but refuse increased taxation or introducing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a negligent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate arguments, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has has something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must engage with the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
